Buses are faster. Broadway is booming. There's more foot traffic in Lower Manhattan than the sidewalks can take. And subway ridership is up by hundreds of thousands of people.
But, o, don't tell that to the pickle man!
In the latest example of how car owners' windshield perspective distorts their reality — and also public policy — a self-styled Lower Manhattan business group is claiming that congestion pricing is already a complete “disaster.”
It clearly isn't, but that didn't stop the owner of The Pickle Guys on Grand Street — who drives every day from Queens to his beloved Lower East Side fermentation factory — to feel like business is declining.
“I sell a $9 product," Al Kaufman, the business owner, told The Coalition to Protect Chinatown and the Lower East Side in its just-released report. "It's hard for my customer to pay a $9 toll and $4 for parking to buy a $9 product!!!! Everything goes up [in price], so I am forced to pass it on to my customers.”
Kaufman's comments were similar to others in the survey, which claims to represent the opinions of 112 business owners, 86 percent of whom said they oppose the toll. But the reasons were completely contradictory, reflecting a throw-everything-at-the-wall-and-hope-something-sticks desperation: 71 percent said that the toll had reduced customer traffic, while 53 percent said the toll has made it harder for employees to commute.
Both things — there's no traffic! Commutes are harder! — can't be true, nor did the survey provide actual analysis of revenues and costs to businesses.
And, most important, no customers were interviewed.
So we did the coalition surveyors' work for them.
'I'd rather sit in traffic'
Last week, Streetsblog dropped by The Pickle Guys, which bills itself as the last standing store in “a neighborhood once known for its bustling pickle markets" — an indication that times have been changing on the Lower East Side since long before congestion pricing.
The corner shop sells homemade pickles to tourists and community regulars seven days a week. Almost none, at least on a weekday when the $9 peak toll is in force, arrives by car.
But Kaufman said that he drives to work every day from Queens — and he admitted that his commute is now 10 minutes shorter, not that that made him a convert.
“It costs me $9, so I’d rather sit in traffic. [The saving] is only 10 minutes — not a big deal,” said Kaufman.
And he admitted that the majority of his business doesn’t come from drivers, but said that some regulars who live in the outer boroughs don’t visit as often because they are bundling their trips driving into the zone instead of driving for just one thing — which is one of the traffic-reduction goals of congestion pricing.
He declined to provide hard evidence that congestion pricing is hurting his business.
“It’s mostly comments I get from the people that do drive in, but it isn’t going to be that significant,” Kaufman admitted. “People won't come in, or they’ll wait until they are coming [to Manhattan] to see a show or do something else. I had a couple of people who said they went to see the doctor and figured they’d come down and get pickles. They’re not going to do the one trip, they’re going to combine their trips. There's less traffic, I agree, but is it worth it?”
Transportation experts say it is. The idea of congestion pricing is, partly, to have people internalize the externalities of their trip, to have drivers pay a tiny bit more of the “true cost” of driving so that they will make different choices that are better for the region.
“If people are combining trips so that they’re doing their congestion relief zone errands more efficiently that is what we would hope and expect. That’s the policy working,” said Rachel Weinberger, research and strategy director at the Regional Plan Association.
What do customers think?
On our visit last week, the Pickle Guys were packing up orders for e-commerce deliveries, while customers walked, scootered or took transit to grab a briny snack. The busy corner is well served by transit: just outside the door is the M14A and the M9 bus, and the Delancey Street/Essex Street J train is a block away.
Alfonso Garcia, who lives in Alphabet City, was visiting The Pickle Guys for the first time after shopping at the Trader Joe’s across the street. Garcia used his electric scooter to get the goods for his pickle-loving partner.
“I understand some people like it and some people hate it,” Garcia said of congestion pricing. “I find that it has helped [with traffic]. I do feel more comfortable on my scooter.”
Josh Santana, who was leaving The Pickle Guys with his dad, said that he’s lived in the neighborhood his whole life and loves the pickle store. He and his dad walk to do all of their errands, including grabbing pickles which they use for cooking, snacking, and even a hangover remedy.
“Anything we do down here, we’re going to walk,” Santana said of his Lower East Side neighborhood.
Two visitors from Chicago, Alex Smith and Max M., told Streetsblog they are staying on the Lower East Side and have been walking and taking transit during their trip, including to visit The Pickle Guys.
“This area is really accessible walking,” said Smith. “Driving would be harder, so I get the idea of disincentivizing driving [with congestion pricing].”
Jessica Bieber, who lives in the neighborhood and visits The Pickle Guys often with her young daughter, said the Lower East Side is a great neighborhood for walking.
“We walk, take public transportation, and scooter to get everywhere,” said Bieber, her daughter grinning clutching her bright purple scooter.
Undermining the survey
The survey is a perfect example of a “false consensus effect” – a type of bias that makes business owners assume that their customers drive to the business because they do. In study after study, business owners in cities around the world have been proven wrong about how their customers get around, always overestimating the amount of customers who drive and undercounting those who walk, bike, or take public transportation.
"I think it's fair to say that people make assumptions about how others get around," said Jaqi Cohen, the director of climate and equity policy at Tri-State Transportation Campaign. "The parallel that I would draw would be the 14th Street busway Manhattan, where, when we were advocating for that busway to go into effect, business owners along 14th Street made a lot of the same arguments that it was going to kill business. And that was not the case."
The preliminary data that has been collected since the congestion pricing cameras turned on just over two months ago shows that foot traffic in the zone has increased, and that business is on a general trend upwards. Lower Manhattan's economy has gotten an almost billion-dollar boost, based on data from credit card companies, and restaurant reservations are up 7 percent year over year, according to OpenTable.
“I appreciate that people feel their business is hurt by this policy, but ... it would be counter to the other evidence we are seeing, wherein foot traffic and retail sales are up around the city,” said Weinberger.
Hearsay and conjecture
The survey relies heavily on the opinions of business owners who often drive in to work and the questions related congestion pricing to other displacement pressures in the neighborhood, like rising rents, which it has nothing to do with.
One long time resident, who preferred to remain anonymous due to the group's tactics, said she is thrilled with the results of congestion pricing and still struggles to get reservations at the neighborhood's popular restaurants.
"I love it so much," she said of the new toll. "I can actually see the decrease in congestion."
Indeed, the Coalition to Protect Chinatown and the Lower East Side survey fails to point out that the vast majority of community residents are not drivers and will reap the quality of life benefits the toll delivers like safer streets, less pollution, and less traffic. In reality, only 6.6 percent of Chinatown and the Lower East Side residents drive to work. And 83 percent of households don’t even have access to a car, according to census data.
“We have the numbers of people actually commuting by car and it's just minuscule compared to the vast, vast, vast majority of people who depend on public transit because they don't or can't own a car. What about their commutes?” said Cohen.
But in the congestion pricing culture war, perception is reality. Except that this perception is coming from out-of-towners; the survey stated that the majority of business owners who responded don't live in the neighborhood.
And that's who the conclusions are for — not those who benefit but from the entitled few who pay the toll: “The toll makes it harder for people to access Lower Manhattan, far outweighing any potential benefits from reduced congestion."
The survey links to a post from the Urban Institute, but misunderstands the takeaway: that all evidence shows that investment in public transit is good for communities and their residents’ economic prospects.
What does congestion pricing do at its most basic level? Fund public transit.
“Driving is not public transit," said Cohen. "Frankly, we've seen almost every bus route in Manhattan improve just since the implementation of congestion pricing. Who do buses serve? Primarily lower income commuters, and so to be able to improve their service by reducing the amount of just absolute wall to wall car traffic that we're experiencing, that, to me, is a huge win.”
President Trump has made ending congestion pricing on behalf of “working class” New Yorkers (who actually overwhelmingly DON’T drive in the city) his pet project. After he announced he would move to end the toll last month the MTA immediately sued the federal government. Governor Hochul has vowed to keep the cameras on and collect revenue unless Trump prevails in court.
Congestion pricing is still the law of the land, for now. And as time goes on there will be clearer data on the toll’s effect.
