Skip to Content
Streetsblog New York City home
Streetsblog New York City home
Log In
L Train Shutdown

There’s a Big Red Flag in the MTA’s Ridership Projections for the L Train Shutdown

The MTA expects only 5 to 15 percent of the 275,000 daily passengers affected by the L train shutdown to use the bus. Image: MTA

Preliminary travel forecasts for the looming L train shutdown suggest the MTA and DOT are aiming too low with plans to provide bus service for affected transit riders, according to Walter Hook of BRT Planning International. The MTA's relatively meager projections for bus ridership during the shutdown, he says, don't reflect the passenger volumes one would expect from fast, reliable bus service operating on streets that fully prioritize transit.

About 225,000 passengers ride the L train across the East River each day, and another 50,000 ride it exclusively in Manhattan. Those passengers will need other options when service between Bedford Avenue and Eighth Avenue is shut down for 18 months, starting in January 2019.

Where the MTA expects displaced L train riders to travel. The thicker the line, the more  for the L train shutdown. Graphic: MTA
Where the MTA expects displaced L train riders to travel. The thicker the line, the more trips. Bus routes are in light blue. Graphic: MTA
Where the MTA expected displaced L train riders to travel. The thicker the line, the more additional passengers during the L train shutdown. Graphic: MTA

The MTA expects the J, M, and G lines to absorb the lion's share of diverted passengers, saying bus service will be necessary to relieve subway crowding and serve 5 to 15 percent of riders who "are far from alternate subway stations."

But by framing buses as a response to limited subway capacity, the MTA is indicating that it expects those bus routes to be an option of last resort, says Hook, not an attractive, high-capacity service.

"If they offered an alternative service at a [bus rapid transit]-type speed, I think their modeling would show that that service would attract more than the five to fifteen percent that they’re projecting," he said. "I think that they’re assuming that those bus services are going to be operating at relatively slow speeds."

The effective bus service that Hook has in mind would include transit-only rights of way in North Brooklyn and Manhattan, all-door boarding, and level boarding. Without those features, not only will bus riders suffer from slow service, but the subway system could be overwhelmed by the crush of new passengers.

At the Hewes Street and Marcy Avenue stations, for instance, the MTA is expecting large numbers of additional riders, but Hook doubts the stations are equipped to handle them. "The train would have that capacity, but my suspicion is that the platforms and the approaches to those two stations can’t handle those volumes," he said.

And if the transit system is overwhelmed, traffic congestion will be compounded as more people turn to driving private cars and ride-hail services like Uber and Lyft, while other people will simply avoid making trips. "There will be some serious consequences unless they do something pretty bold," Hook said.

Stay in touch

Sign up for our free newsletter

More from Streetsblog New York City

Albany Running Out of Options to Close MTA Funding Gap: Watchdog

Tighten the belt and give up the frills, the Citizens Budget Commission warned.

March 21, 2025

Advocates Demand New Jersey Agencies Cough Up Congestion Pricing Data

NJT and the Port Authority need to cough up some actually useful post-congestion pricing travel data, advocates on both sides of the Hudson River said.

March 21, 2025

Friday’s Headlines: Fake Deadline Extended Edition

It's the first day of spring and, if you're U.S. DOT Secretary Sean Duffy, it was supposed to be the last day of congestion pricing. But it's not. Plus other news.

March 21, 2025

‘Disaster’: Outdoor Dining Snafu Could Ban Alfresco Booze For Months

It's shaping up to be a sober outdoor dining spring.

March 20, 2025

Congestion Pricing’s Big Winner? Bus Riders

Buses move faster in and around New York City ever since congestion pricing kicked in — spurring MTA officials to tweak some route schedules.

March 20, 2025
See all posts