Who are you going to believe — the MTA's new daily updated data or, to paraphrase Chico Marx, your own truth-tellin' eyes?
We've all seen the reduction of cars in the Central Business District, but a new trove of data, which breaks out tolled vehicles from those that remain on the untolled West Side Highway, reveals just how successful the first few weeks of congestion pricing have been.
In the first workweek of the toll, from Jan. 6 to Jan. 10, there was an average of 538,955 vehicle entries into the Central Business District, an 8.17-percent decrease in traffic compared to the years leading up to congestion pricing. In the second week, from Jan. 13 to Jan. 17 there was an average of 556,381 vehicles driving into the CBD, a 4.78-percent reduction compared to pre-congestion pricing traffic.
The agency's January baseline of daily vehicle trips into the CBD before the traffic toll started was 583,000. That central business district data includes vehicles driving south of 60th Street on the West Side Highway and FDR Drive, which aren't tolled.
Meanwhile, over the same period, the number of vehicles that entered the "congestion relief zone" — which comprises only vehicles that enter the tolled part of Manhattan south of 60th Street — was lower: In the first week of congestion pricing, 477,393 vehicles entered that relief zone, which rose slightly to 492,482 in the second week of the toll.
This data is on the agency's newly reconfigured Daily Ridership and Traffic page. In both cases, the data includes every vehicle cameras pick up, which means exempted vehicles and taxis and for-hire vehicles are also included in the count.
The slight increase in CBD and CRZ entries from one week to the next was to be expected in some ways, since the first week in January after the holidays is slow in most years. The decrease in vehicle volumes will also surely bounce back at some point, as congestion pricing expert Charles Komanoff recently explained, since some drivers will return to the roads once they see that the streets have become less congested.
The traffic drop is also clearly bearing fruit on street safety, as fewer vehicles in lower Manhattan has led to a 51-percent decrease in injuries and a 55-percent decrease in crashes compared to the same 12-day period in January 2024. (In addition, congestion pricing seems to have inspired the New York Rangers, who are 7-0-3 since Jan. 5, the day the toll began, dragging themselves out of the toilet and back into the thick of the playoff race.)
It's hard to know exactly what the data means in the short term, because there's a lack of definitive daily or weekly baselines to compare the data to. The seasonally adjusted January CBD entries the MTA used for its initial data drop includes vehicles using the West Side Highway and FDR Drive, because the agency was using the New York Metropolitan Transportation Council's Hub Bound travel reports (the same reports used to inform the congestion pricing environmental assessment) to establish a baseline. There isn't a similar baseline for CRZ entries yet, but MTA spokesperson Aaron Donovan said that the agency is working to establish one.
At an unrelated press conference on Friday, MTA CEO Janno Lieber cheered the new data, but also trusted his eyes.
"We're starting to learn and get more data, but the main thing is, everybody's lived experience is the same: Traffic in Midtown is dramatically down, and it's a much calmer environment. We actually got data yesterday that there are fewer traffic collisions, fewer people are being injured, in traffic crashes," he said, referring to Streetsblog's exclusive story on Thursday. "So, it's good news all around, but we got to keep watching how it's unfolding."
The open data update does come with another tweak that indicates the MTA is moving on from its initial presentation of ridership data. The daily ridership update used to compare each day's ridership and crossing data to a typical weekday or weekend day from before the pandemic, but that comparison is no longer included in the data.
Last year, Lieber told reporters the agency was going to no longer rely on McKinsey and Co. projections for its recovery baselines as it had in in 2020 and 2022. Five years on from the start of the pandemic, and with transit ridership settling into smaller but consistent increases since 2023, analysts see the removal of daily pre-pandemic comparisons as the agency making a choice to look at its ridership recovery in a new light.
"In some ways, MTA is making a policy choice," said Reinvent Albany Senior Policy Advisor Rachael Fauss. "This actually aligns with their decision to no longer have McKinsey make ridership projections. While these were important benchmarks for post-Covid recovery, the MTA is now estimating future ridership on their own (and at a much lower cost to the public).
But Donovan also said that the MTA is planning on sharing more detailed pre-Covid ridership data. Until that happens, anyone looking to do their own post-pandemic recovery tracking will have to DIY it. To do that, take the total ridership for a day with a pre-Covid ridership percentage, divide the day's total by the percentage and then use that total to get a percentage for a similar day.
For instance, to compare subway ridership for the third Thursday of January 2025 to pre-Covid ridership, you can divide the ridership of Jan. 18, 2024 by the percentage of a comparable day (3,655,850 divided by 0.71). You then take the ridership of Jan. 16, 2025 (3,918,525), divide it by the number you just got (5,163,169) and multiply it by 100. Voila, 75 percent of pre-pandemic ridership.
