No Uber-Lyft Cap Needed Because New York Can Price Its Way Out of Congestion and Despair

Our expert points to several ways to mitigate traffic without a ban on new taxis.

Congestion is a major problem in Manhattan — but the City Council's proposed cap on Uber and Lyft and other app-based taxi companies won't fix it, our expert says.
Congestion is a major problem in Manhattan — but the City Council's proposed cap on Uber and Lyft and other app-based taxi companies won't fix it, our expert says.

The City Council is weighing a one-year cap on the number of vehicles that Uber, Lyft and other app-based ride-hail services can deploy on New York streets. A vote could come as early as next week.

The intent is to halt the flood of app-based for-hire vehicles and its resulting social ills including worsened Manhattan gridlock and a disastrous “race to the bottom” for drivers. Nevertheless, a cap won’t provide much of a cure. The better plan is congestion pricing for all cabs and, of course, private cars and trucks, coupled with a wage standard for drivers like the one recently outlined for the Taxi and Limousine Commission.

That’s a lot to absorb. Let’s unpack it all:

A Cap Won’t Help

Caps rarely deliver as intended; workarounds are too easy. An Uber ceiling will encourage permit-holders to rent their idle vehicles to other drivers who want in. As The New York Times editorialized, “Uber cars that currently spend seven or eight hours on the road could be used twice as long if new licenses become hard to get.” Traffic will worsen, further diluting driver earnings and slowing down everyone trying to get around.

In theory, the city could impose the cap only in the increasingly gridlocked Central Business District of Manhattan south of 60th Street or the somewhat larger “Manhattan taxi zone” which extends to 96th Street. The mechanism to do so isn’t clear, however. Would it be geo-fencing? A permit lottery? Also, the proposed cap exempts disabled-accessible cabs. If applications pour in for those, the gridlock will only get worse.

That’s no idle concern, in light of my modeling calculations suggesting that a single vehicle moving or even just sitting in the central business district for an hour imposes two hours’ worth of aggregate delays on other cars, cabs, buses and trucks — a “social slowdown” with a hundred-dollar tab in lost time.

An Uber cap, however, would be rife with unwanted consequences such as inhibiting app-based rides where they add positive value — in the city’s ever-encroaching transit deserts and communities historically underserved by yellow cabs. Fortunately, an alternative is available.

Congestion Pricing, in Two Steps

Rather than a cap, officials could enact a pricing scheme for Ubers and Lyfts that preserves their mobility (the pro) while counteracting their congestion (the con). Such a system would surcharge rides in the taxi zone, where transit is most plentiful and reliable, and congestion costs are highest, while charging little or nothing for rides elsewhere, where those conditions are reversed.

This approach is no mere theory; it’s now state policy devised as a mass transit revenue-raiser that’s scheduled to take effect on New Year’s Day when for-hire vehicle rides that touch the Manhattan taxi zone will be surcharged $2.50 for yellow cabs and $2.75 for Ubers and Lyfts. A surcharge on time traveled in the taxi zone would have been more effective than the legislature’s flat fee, but the policy should make at least a modest dent in Manhattan gridlock by deterring a fraction of rides.

I have estimated that the pending surcharges will yield a 4-percent uptick in travel speeds in the central business district, owing to a projected 4-percent decline in Uber and Lyft trips and a 6-percent drop in yellow cab rides in the taxi zone. In contrast, Uber and Lyft pickups in the rest of the city will fall by a negligible one-half of one percent. In short, app-based trips outside the traffic-clogged area of the city will be unaffected.

To be sure, the 4-percent predicted bump in CBD speeds is small bore in the face of today’s historically awful midtown gridlock. The boost would be higher but for the ever-present “rebound effect” by which any new traffic daylight induces additional private car trips.

The real antidote, of course, is “pedal to the metal congestion pricing,” as The Daily News (and The Times, less colorfully) reminded us in editorials on Tuesday. What I call the “Higher-Range Plan” embodied in Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s Fix NYC report would vastly improve Manhattan travel speeds at a loss of just a few percent of combined yellow-cab and Uber/Lyft trips. The Move NY Plan, with variable CBD tolling and time-based for-hire vehicle surcharges in the Manhattan taxi zone, would actually boost the number of cab and app-based trips.

A Wage Standard for Drivers

Both papers also endorsed the “earnings standard for app-based drivers” outlined in the recent report by economists James Parrott of the New School’s Center for New York City Affairs and Michael Reich of the University of California, Berkeley. As we wrote at the time, the report recommends that the city adopt a per-minute and per-hour earnings formula for app-based drivers by which drivers’ compensation for each fare would rise automatically in proportion to each app company’s average idle time (zero passengers in the vehicle) in the prior three months.

As we noted:

The policy would incentivize Uber, Lyft, Via, and Gett/Juno — the four companies that dominate the sector — to deploy their dispatch algorithms to maximize the time drivers are on duty with a fare in the car, known as the “driver utilization rate.” That in turn would diminish “cruising” time that squeezes drivers and adds to congestion, resulting in a win for both workers and traffic.

The earnings increase would be paid for by a combination of reduced company profits, higher fares and increased efficiencies.

What To Do — And Not Do — Next

To sum up: The City Council should table the Uber and Lyft cap and direct the TLC to implement the earnings standard for app-based drivers as quickly as possible. The Council should also pass a home-rule resolution calling on the legislature to enact comprehensive congestion pricing in early 2019.

If congestion pricing fails again in Albany, the council should enact it on its own, using the powers granted to it by the state legislature half-a-century ago and codified in New York State’s Vehicle & Traffic Law, §1642(a)(4). A helpful and probably necessary step in that direction would be for Mayor Bill de Blasio to finally dispense with obsolete, rhetorical arguments of economic and geographic inequality and commit to debating congestion pricing on its actual merits.

  • Linda

    love the final justified dig at deblasio the opportunist

  • Dan Borden

    Yes, but unfortunately the dig is wrong. Comrade de Blasio’s blather is not obsolete. Just look at Commie Barbie(Alexandra Whatever….I hate stupid hyphenated names), the bullshit is spreading into the mainstream.

  • Jeff Blum

    This is really thoughtful and helpful analysis. But is it wise to discourage the council from taking action that it seems more-or-less inclined to? Why not urge the council to pass the cap but then suspend it for 3 months, and direct DOT to move on the fee plan, with the incentive that the cap would never be implemented if the fee had an impact?

    At the same time, can the council be encouraged to set metrics for NYPD traffic enforcement that would support congestion-reducing travel by bikes? After all, we know that no one solution is a silver bullet on traffic, or anything else.

  • NYC_employer

    The council is obviously doing this cap as quickly as possible to avoid rational debate. The fix is in – they want the campaign contributions from the cab drivers who bought million dollar medallions. The whole medallion process has kept better service levels for cabs from EVRYWHERE except midtown. They are not being rational except for them looking for campaign money. Screw the citizens!

  • dick

    congestion in the area is not caused by the average person driving their car. it is caused by numerous factors including an excessive amount of cabs and uber, lyft cars. TLC cars are also a huge problem because they park at curbside without paying while waiting for their next call. the biggest cause of congestion below 60th street is trucks who refuse to park at the curb while making deliveries. on every block you can see trucks double parked on both sides making a 4 lane avenue become a congested 2 lane avenue backing up traffic. there is usally a space further down the block but they refuse to use it.many companies ,fed ex being the worst,double parking two trucks to off load one another with no care to traffic. so dont blame regular drivers , put it where it belongs

  • Love the idea of installing congestion pricing ahead of congestion pricing . It seems the companies will not care as they are passing the fees on to the customers . Risk is that it will lead to a decrease in driver utilisation ratio.. not helpful for congestion. Only if the fee is really high will it discourage trips in midtown .

    Today one can use yellow cabs through the CURB app. Works exclu like UBER . I think we need to stop differentiating between all cabs companies and treat them all the same . Every car should be able to be hailed in the street, on phone , or on app. This would improve the service to customers.

    Differentiation should be in territories served. With different caps for different areas. And a lottery to renew 25 % of licenses in each borough every two years.

    I also think that licenses should be attached to drivers and not to cars. Then cab companies ( including limo yellow etc) would have to compete for these drivers . We would also test the drivers safety record etc… this resolves the whole issue of cars reused by multiple drivers etc…

  • Dny

    Congestion pricing is another tax by irresponsible politicians on hard working New Yorker’s. All those in favor of it; are not thinking about the big picture what is going on in New York City. New York City in last 10-15 years has gone through a transformation of many areas being developed into housing. A few areas such as Williamsburg, Long island city and many parts of Staten island have seen population increase without any sort of fix to local infrastructure.

    Why are real estate developers allowed to constantly build new housing, some with tax incentives? Real estate developers need to pay into an infrastructure fund that can be used for improvement of the neighborhood that the house or building is built. Rather than charge people coming into Manhattan a congestion charge; that will affect everyone in all the 5 boroughs. All Deliveries of food, goods will increase to offset higher delivery charges by the tolls. They can implement a income tax for people who do not live in nyc but work in nyc but say commute from NJ, Long island. Why do they get to use the city services but do not have to pay a city residential tax?

    Another thing that can be done is dismantle the mta; the corruption is out of control. The City needs to think how to increase speed of traffic meanwhile decreasing congestion. I for one like how Las Vegas has pedestrian bridge crossing. if the city built these bridges and underground pedestrian crossings in busy areas of Manhattan and fenced off sidewalks so people would not be able to cross them; unless they use bridges or underground walkway. It would lead to decrease in congestion 10x. The problems is population has increased and no one has thought about what might be. Each politician kicks the problem to the candidate that takeover after they leave office. The time is up now; if they don’t do anything. Then, businesses will leave, the population will decrease and so will the tax revenue.


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