Skip to Content
Streetsblog New York City home
Streetsblog New York City home
Log In
Bicycling

How Much Can Bicycling Help Fight Climate Change? A Lot, If Cities Try

A new study from the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy attempts to measure the potential of bikes and e-bikes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Buenos Aires has been ambitiously building out a network of well designed, separated bike infrastructure. If this kind of commitment were employed worldwide, the environmental and financial repercussions would be enormous. Photo: ITDP
Buenos Aires has been building out a network of protected bike infrastructure. If this kind of commitment were employed in cities worldwide, the climate benefits would be huge. Photo: ITDP
false

ITDP's conclusion, in short: Bicycling could help cut carbon emissions from urban transportation 11 percent.

The authors calculated the carbon emissions reduction that could result if cities around the world make a strong, sustained commitment to promoting bicycle travel.

In a scenario where 14 percent of travel in the world's cities is by bike or e-bike in 2050, carbon emissions from urban transportation would be 11 percent lower than a scenario where efforts to promote sustainable transportation sidestep bicycling.

The ITDP scenario calls for 11 percent of urban mileage by bike by 2030 before hitting 14 percent in 2050. For many big American cities where bicycling accounts for a small share of total travel, that may sound like a high bar -- and that was part of the point. The ITDP targets will require a significant public policy commitment. But the goals are achievable and aren't as daunting as they might seem, the authors say.

Already, ITDP estimates about 6 percent of miles traveled in world cities are by bike or e-bike. More than half of those bicycling miles, however, come from just a few countries, including Japan, China, the Netherlands, and Denmark.

In general, bicycling's share of travel is flat or falling in developing countries. And in the U.S. and Canada, bicycling only accounts for about 1 percent of non-recreational trips.

Baseline world cycling rates. Graph: ITDP
Current bicycle mode share in selected countries. Chart: ITDP
false

Under the scenario described by ITDP, bicycling would rise to about 11 percent of miles traveled in American and Canadian cities by 2050. In countries like China where the rate is already above that level, it would be as high as 25 percent.

In order to achieve that level of cycling, cities around the world would need to make substantial changes to their policies and infrastructure, ITDP says, including:

    • Rapidly developing large-scale networks of bike infrastructure.
    • Implementing bike-share, with an emphasis on connections to transit.
    • Revising laws to protect cyclists and pedestrians.
    • Investing in walking and transit.
    • Coordinating regional land use planning with transportation investments.
    • Ending subsidies for driving, like parking minimums and fuel subsidies.
    • Instituting congestion pricing.
    • Dedicating driving fees to sustainable transportation.

The report builds on previous research from ITDP measuring the potential impact of dramatically expanding the use of sustainable transportation in U.S. cities. That study found shifting reliance from cars to bikes, buses and walking, could reduce emissions from transport in cities by 40 percent. The new report was undertaken after bike advocates in Europe and elsewhere responded that the previous study may have underestimated the share of trips that could be shifted to bicycling.

Factoring in the greater potential for mode shift to bikes, ITDP estimates that the total reduction in urban transportation emissions by 2050 could reach 50 percent if cities aggressively pursue policies to promote sustainable modes. The upcoming United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 21) in Paris "provides an excellent opportunity to move global policy toward supporting this scenario," ITDP concludes.

Stay in touch

Sign up for our free newsletter

More from Streetsblog New York City

GHOSTING: Drivers with ‘Ghost Plates’ Are Speeding Through New York City Streets

Cars with fake, obscured, or mismatched license plates continue to wreak havoc on city streets, a City Council report revealed.

August 28, 2025

MONEY TALKS: Business Interests Call the Shots in Eric Adams’s New York

Forget the bribery charges — you don't have to break the law to buy influence in the Big Apple.

August 28, 2025

Thursday’s Headlines: ‘Blessed’ By Duffy and Byford Edition

Sean Duffy became the latest in a long line of politicians to make big promises about New York Penn Station. Plus more news.

August 28, 2025

Wednesday’s Headlines: Mastro of None Edition

The Adams administration put the brakes on yet another long-awaited DOT initiative as it crossed the finish line. Plus more news.

August 27, 2025

City Hall Pauses Upper West Side ‘Smart Curb’ Parking Reforms Amid Predictable Driver Backlash

DOT's nascent effort to convert 70 curbside spots on the Upper West Side from free to metered parking is on hold after drivers threw a fit, City Hall said.

August 26, 2025

Talking Headways Podcast: Talking with Ryan Russo (Yes, THAT Ryan Russo) About Bike Networks

The head of NACTO (and maybe the head of NYC DOT in waiting?) talks to America's leading transportation podcast.

August 26, 2025
See all posts