Skip to Content
Streetsblog New York City home
Streetsblog New York City home
Log In
Streetsblog

The Cost of Lowballing Light Rail Ridership Projections

The Overhead Wire has picked up on a piece in Saturday's New York Times about how light rail ridership in Phoenix has exceeded expectations. The post points out that this isn't the first time the Federal Transportation Administration has underestimated demand for similar projects, a pattern that has the potential for real consequences:

3149451036_b6bac905f1.jpgLight rail in Phoenix: The demand is real. Photo by phxwebguy via Flickr.

Yay, FTA Models. You totally rule at figuring out ridership in new light rail cities. You did a bang-up job in Minneapolis (24K in 2020, current 26k), really got those Houston numbers right for 2020 (33k in 2020, current 38k), and Charlotte was right on target (9k
opening, current 14k). Note: the APTA daily numbers are a bit wonky. I
don't know if I completely trust them to the rider but they make the
point.

Now we can add Phoenix to the list of FTA model lowballing: "The
rail was projected to attract 26,000 riders per day, but the number is
closer to 33,000, boosted in large part by weekend riders."

What
kills me about all this lowballing is what the cost-effectiveness
number was -- and what it SHOULD have been. Ultimately, that is what
decides projects. And it's a little messed up that the FTA keeps
getting it wrong, especially when they can kill a project because of a
CE below Medium.

More good stuff from around the network: Sprawled Out looks at how Panera Bread has found success by creating public spaces in suburban communities that have few or none. Kaid Benfield on NRDC Switchboard writes about how San Francisco lots left vacant by the recession might be repurposed. And The Transport Politic has the news on proposals for high-speed rail in the US from SNCF, the French national railroad operator.

Stay in touch

Sign up for our free newsletter

More from Streetsblog New York City

New Bill Would Block Apps From Deactivating Workers Without Cause

A Brooklyn Council member wants delivery app companies to be more human and less robot.

July 18, 2025

Friday Video: Is Berlin a Great Biking City?

Have recent moves by anti-bike, pro-car legislators ruined the experience in the capital of a unified Germany? Sort of!

July 18, 2025

Eyes on the Street: Meeker Avenue Bike Lane Is a Failure

The Department of Transportation still hasn't finished a critical bike lane under the Brooklyn-Queens Expressway that the agency has been stalling for over four years even after identifying the strip's danger and lack of proper signals.

July 18, 2025

Friday’s Headlines: Cuomo’s Road Rage Edition

Why does Andrew Cuomo drive so recklessly? Plus other news.

July 18, 2025

Fixing Third Ave. Was Once ‘Top of List’ For Eric Adams — But as Mayor He Backed Off

Mayor Adams has delayed a redesign of Brooklyn's Third Avenue despite once saying safety fixes there should be "at the top of our list."

July 17, 2025

Thursday’s Headlines: Jerry Nadler Edition

U.S. Rep. Jerry Nadler faced off with Sean Duffy on Capitol Hill. Plus more news.

July 17, 2025
See all posts