Skip to Content
Streetsblog New York City home
Log In
Traffic

It’s Happening: Washington State Revises Traffic Forecasts to Reflect Reality

1:38 PM EDT on October 21, 2014

Washington State has revised traffic projections downward, to reflect changing patterns. Image: Washington State via Sightline
The Washington State Office of Fiscal Management has revised its traffic projections downward to reflect changing patterns. Graph Washington OFM via Sightline
false

The amount that the average American drives each year has been declining for nearly a decade, yet most transportation agencies are still making decisions based on the notion that a new era of ceaseless traffic growth is right around the corner.

The Wisconsin Department of Transportation, for example, has overestimated traffic on its roads by an average of 73 percent, according to a recent study. And Dallas-area planners recently produced traffic projections that predicted a much larger increase in driving than the state DOT was even predicting.

That's why a new traffic forecast from the Washington State Office of Fiscal Management is so interesting: It actually acknowledges how travel habits are changing. Seattle-based environmental think tank Sightline spotted the above traffic projection in a new government report. In its most recent financial forecast, the agency has abandoned the assumption of never-ending traffic growth that it employed as recently as last year. Instead, the agency has responded to recent trends, even projecting that total traffic will start to decline within the next ten years.

Sightline's Clark Williams-Derry says that's huge:

By undermining both the rationale for new roads and the belief that we’ll be able to pay for them, a forecast of flat traffic should help inject a needed dose of reality into the state’s transportation debates.

Of course, there’s no telling whether this forecast will be right. As Yogi Berra allegedly said, predictions are hard, especially about the future. But if it turns out that this forecast underestimates traffic growth, budgeters won’t find it such an unpleasant surprise, since more traffic will bring more revenue from drivers.

Stay in touch

Sign up for our free newsletter

More from Streetsblog New York City

Pols Detail ‘Road Map’ For Safe Streets in Western Queens

A group of western Queens lawmakers released a plan for street safety projects they want to see before 2030.

November 28, 2023

Tuesday’s Headlines: Restorative (Traffic) Justice Edition

Two stories highlighted a restorative justice program that allows traffic crash victims and perpetrators the chance to meet face-to-face. Plus more news.

November 28, 2023

Top NJ Lawmaker Proposes Major Reforms to Fight Temporary License Plate Fraud

The new legislation follows a seven-month Streetsblog investigation that found widespread fraud involving temp tags, with car dealers abusing weak state regulations and selling paper plates illegally to drivers using them to evade accountability on the road.

November 28, 2023

Fed Panel Wants to Confront the Role of Aggressive Auto Advertising in U.S. Road Deaths

A horrific car crash has federal safety officials calling for systematic responses to traffic violence — including the aggressive car ads that may inspire motorists to hit the gas.

November 28, 2023

A ‘Giving Tuesday’ Streetsblog Primer

Before we ask for your donation, let us prove to you that we're worthy of it!

November 28, 2023
See all posts