Skip to Content
Streetsblog New York City home
Streetsblog New York City home
Log In
Climate Change

What Will Our Future Be Like If We Don’t Change How We Get Around?

What will transportation be like in 2030? It depends a lot on what policies we institute, a RAND report finds. Image: ##http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR246.html## RAND##
What will transportation be like in 2030? It depends a lot on what policies we institute, a RAND report finds. Image: ##http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR246.html##RAND##
false

How will Americans get around in the year 2030? A recent report from the RAND Corporation lays out two "plausible futures" developed though a "scenario analysis" and vetted by outside experts. While RAND takes a decidedly agnostic stance toward the implications of each scenario, the choice that emerges is still pretty stark.

In the first scenario, oil prices continue to climb until 2030 and greenhouse gas emissions are tightly regulated, as a result of the recognition of the harm caused by global warming. Zoning laws have been reformed to promote walkable urban and suburban communities. Transit use has increased substantially. Road pricing is widely used to limit congestion and generate revenue for transportation projects. Vehicle efficiency standards have been tightened, and most drivers use electric vehicles. This is the scenario researchers at RAND call, rather dourly, "No Free Lunch."

In the second scenario, “Fueled and Freewheeling,” oil prices are relatively low in 2030 due to increasingly advanced extraction methods. Americans' relationship to energy is much like it was in the 1980s and 1990s. We'll own more vehicles overall and drive more miles. Suburbanization will continue. Roads are in bad shape because no revenues are raised to repair them. Congestion is worse. This scenario represents the future if little action is taken to counter the effects of global warming.

The difference between the two scenarios boils down to three factors: oil prices, level of regulation, and highway revenues and expenditures. While we might not have a great deal of control over oil prices, the other two, RAND points out, fall within the range of public policy. So in that sense either future is plausible.

In both cases the economy is healthy, though RAND thinks that in the "No Free Lunch" scenario, the U.S. economy grows about 2 percent annually, compared to 2.5 percent in the scenario with terrible congestion on crumbling roads and, presumably, catastrophic climate change on the horizon. RAND forecasts that in neither scenario will intercity rail travel represent an appreciable portion of total travel, nor will self-driving cars be a major share of vehicles.

A few aspects of the report are odd. In the scenario where America does something about climate change, "greater densities" are for some reason attributed to "new zoning restrictions," not the loosening of pervasive zoning rules that compel sprawling, single-use development with tons of parking. And RAND didn't analyze health and safety effects in its scenarios. Even though it must be a safe bet to predict that in a future where Americans are driving less and walking and taking transit more, thousands fewer lives would be lost in traffic each year, and people would be living longer thanks to the additional physical activity in their daily routines.

Stay in touch

Sign up for our free newsletter

More from Streetsblog New York City

Teen Helmet Mandate for E-Citi Bikes? Albany Lawmakers are Up to No Good Again

Key state lawmakers want to require some Citi Bike users to wear helmets — a mandate that studies have shown can dramatically reduce ridership. Plus other news from the State Capitol.

May 7, 2025

Eric Adams Punts the Future of Open Streets to the Next Mayor

The city's car-free open streets are funded for just one more year under Mayor Adams's proposed budget. But Cuomo looms.

May 7, 2025

Komanoff: Tsk, Tsk, Tisch — Criminal Summonses for Cyclists Will Backfire

Commissioner Jessica Tisch's new policy will result in unsafer streets and crackdowns on hard-working immigrants.

May 7, 2025

Decision 2025: Mayoral Hopefuls Discuss Saving Us From Reckless Drivers

Promises promises. But what will some of the top mayoral candidates do on this critical street safety issue?

See all posts